[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022123 
NEZ000-SDZ000-022200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022123Z - 022200Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A TOWERING CU OVER KEYA PAHA COUNTY NEB OR 15 NNE
ANW.  THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED E-W ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER...WITH THE AIR MASS ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-4000 J/KG/.  THE TOWERING CU SUGGESTS THE
CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
EWD ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE
OVER ERN WY ATTM.  AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..PETERS.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

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