[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022132 
MIZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687...

VALID 022132Z - 022300Z

...GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS LOWER PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...

WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL WI AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS LOWER MI. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE MAINLY LOCATED EAST OF A
CAD/GRR LINE...AND ARE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. STORMS MOVING INTO THIS AIRMASS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG/SVR GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM MI SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 20
KT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE HURON AND
INTO SWRN ONTARIO. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE
MAINLY BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHICH AGREES WITH LATEST VAD WIND
DATA FROM GRR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM WIND DAMAGE
WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

ACROSS UPPER MI...WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS...THE AIRMASS
HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SO THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT.

..TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

41948337 42048535 42808560 44088557 44918466 45228391
45208277 44768260 43708243 42878267 

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