[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 191704
SWODY2
SPC AC 191703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2007

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN BAJA CA IS
FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO LOWER MO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING...UPSTREAM JET OVER THE
PACIFIC NW INTO GREAT BASIN.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH NOW
BUILDING SEWD THROUGH THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH SOME WEAK BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL WAVE BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME OVER E TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE LLJ DEVELOPMENT OVER E TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH...WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE
IN MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.  LAPSE
RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES
REMAINING GENERALLY TOO WARM FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING
DEVELOPMENT.  STILL...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED POCKETS
OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION
BAND WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

..MEAD.. 01/19/2007