[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 090506
SWODY2
SPC AC 090505

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST MON JAN 08 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POLAR TROUGH PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION.  THIS WILL OCCUR TO THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS ONE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SURGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE
DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES.  IN ADVANCE OF THE
LATTER FEATURE...AN INCREASING SHEARED TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM IS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING ACROSS BAJA AND THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU...INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH
CENTRAL STATES.  THIS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IN AN UPPER PLUME OFF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SATURATE THE ENVIRONMENT IN PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER LEVELS.  WHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BEGINNING TO MODIFY...IN THE WAKE OF A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE.

...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITHIN ELEVATED PACIFIC MOIST PLUME
AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION...RESULTING IN NEGLIGIBLE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...WEST OF ROCKIES...
SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL COLD CORE WILL INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 
HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE CASCADES
...BENEATH UPPER COLD CORE...MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY
WEAK CAPE.  THIS MAY EXTEND THROUGH A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER...BUT
MIXED PHASE LAYER WILL BE LOW...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE FAVORABLY COLD FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 01/09/2007