[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 080542
SWODY2
SPC AC 080541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST SUN JAN 07 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH WILL REMAIN
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES INTO/THROUGH ITS BASE...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  THEREAFTER...THE
SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A BIT
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.
A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARD
BAJA IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER FEATURE.  AND...MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU
TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.  HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A SURFACE
RIDGE...SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF STATES DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WILL NOT BEGIN TO RETREAT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A RETURN FLOW
INLAND...WILL BE INHIBITED.  A DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN
A NEGLIGIBLE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NATION...WITH PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH /WITH 700-500
MB TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -40 C/ WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  AND...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWERING MIXED PHASE
LAYER...WITH FAVORABLY COLD EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...TO SUPPORT A RISK
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 01/08/2007