[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051712
SWODY2
SPC AC 051710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LWR MS VLY AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE SERN STATES...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA
BY SATURDAY.  IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DECELERATE ACROSS NRN FL AND THE NRN GULF BASIN
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN LIFTING NWD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

UPSTREAM...A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH WAS DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN.  SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SHEAR ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY...OWING TO THE MODEST UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE SWRN ATLANTIC BASIN.  THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TN AND LWR MS RVR VLYS SATURDAY
NIGHT.  

RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE UPSTREAM WAVE/FRONT.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
NWD...BUT A WARM/SUBSIDENT LAYER ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY FAVOR SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND LITTLE THUNDER
THROUGH PEAK HEATING.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY...
HOWEVER...SATURDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASING LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME.  TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER
06Z...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND ALONG/N
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN LA NWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH.  ISOLD TSTMS
MAY ALSO EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 12Z SUNDAY AS THE
COLUMN GRADUALLY MOISTENS AND DESTABILIZES.  SEVERE TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES...
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

...SERN NEW ENGLAND...
A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLD TSTMS WILL EXIST BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. 
SRN PERIPHERY OF WEAK H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ELEVATED PARCELS WILL LIKELY BE LOFTED INTO
THE ICING LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG...INCREASING THE RISK
FOR LIGHTNING.

..RACY.. 01/05/2007