[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 041701
SWODY2
SPC AC 041700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST THU JAN 04 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SERN STATES...
THE CNTRL TX UPR LOW WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COASTAL
STATES TONIGHT THENCE DEAMPLIFY AND TRAVERSE THE SERN STATES AND SRN
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAKENING
PHASE OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN SFC FEATURES THAT BECOME LESS
DEFINED DURING THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING LIKELY OVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE SE COAST PER 12Z GFS.

BELT OF ENHANCED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL ADVECT A HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NWD
INTO NRN FL...SRN GA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND FRIDAY. 
HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...WITH
STRONGEST INSTABILITY LIKELY RELEGATED TO THE CNTRL/ERN FL PNHDL
INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA DURING THE AFTN.

A LINEAR MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL
SWWD INTO THE NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.  OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
SQUALL LINE MAY TEND TO BECOME DISORGANIZED AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
MORNING AS UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS.  CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...HOWEVER...
MAY BE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS /OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF
MORNING ACTIVITY/ DOWNSTREAM IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY
AFTN.  

THOUGH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...PRESENCE OF 50-70
KTS OF H5 FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY FOR
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WHERE
BUOYANCY IS STRONGER IN THE FL PNHDL AND SRN GA.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY LINEAR...THOUGH...WITH A PRIMARY WIND DAMAGE
THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL INTO PARTS
OF THE CAROLINAS BY 00-03Z.  ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WHERE MORE ROBUST TSTMS CAN DEVELOP.

..RACY.. 01/04/2007