[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 071648
SWODY2
SPC AC 071647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CST SUN JAN 07 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD AND OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SPEED MAX TRANSLATES SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.  FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SITUATED FROM NY SWD ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO THE ERN GULF BASIN AT 12Z MON.  BANDS
OF CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ALONG/E OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 18-21Z.

THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE PRIMARILY N OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM
SECTOR CONFINED TO THE SERN STATES.  THUS...PROSPECTS FOR A
WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS ARE UNLIKELY.  BUT...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF THE THETA-E AXIS
ACROSS ESPECIALLY ERN NC NWD INTO SERN VA AND THE LWR-ERN MD SHORE
THROUGH EARLY AFTN.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC MAY BE MIXED DOWNWARD IN THE STRONGER
SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG THE FRONT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
INTO THE SERN STATES AS PRIMARY FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

..RACY.. 01/07/2007