[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 070549
SWODY2
SPC AC 070548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST SAT JAN 06 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH...DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TODAY...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE MOST VIGOROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY 12Z TUESDAY.  BUT...THIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY. 
FARTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER LARGE COLD UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL DIG
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA /NORTHERN
U.S. PACIFIC COAST.

STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING COLD
SURGE ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE MAY STILL BE INLAND OF
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE
RISK LIKELY WILL END BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES
OFFSHORE.  THE BOUNDARY MAY NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEARS TOO STRONG FOR AN APPRECIABLE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN WEAK UPPER FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG PROGGED INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS MAY ALREADY BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z MONDAY. 
AND...PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF VEERING. 
HOWEVER...THE FRONT MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
AT LEAST A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH MAY ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL VIA DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 50+ KT
MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.  THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE BOUNDARY
CLEARS COASTAL AREAS...LIKELY BY THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.

..KERR.. 01/07/2007