[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 061724
SWODY2
SPC AC 061722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST SAT JAN 06 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
140+ KT H25 JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST THIS MORNING WILL
ENHANCE THE WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY.  THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL THEN DIG SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z
MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE NRN
GULF BASIN TODAY WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT VCNTY SRN LA COAST.  THIS LOW WILL THEN
TRANSLATE NEWD TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A WEAK LOW FORMING OVER DELMARVA BY EARLY
MONDAY.  TRAILING THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM THE LWR
MS VLY TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL VA SWWD TO SERN GA AND NRN FL BY
MONDAY MORNING.  

12Z RAOBS EXHIBITED POOR LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE DEEP S AND SERN
STATES OWING TO WARM TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN NWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE WITH LWR-MID 60S SFC
DEW POINTS LIKELY COMMON ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED
BY THE CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HOWEVER.  

12Z NAM/GFS AGREE THAT AN INCREASING LLJ WILL ENHANCE THETA-E
ADVECTION IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVE.  THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION/TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE NWD FROM SERN GA
TO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE MINIMAL...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT
AMIDST A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS A RESULT...BRIEF TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MORE SUSTAINED STORMS... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC...NC AND SERN VA.  

OTHERWISE...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTN AND NIGHT AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SPREAD EWD. 
STEEPEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OH VLY. 
THUS...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN RATHER MEAGER ALONG THE
FRONT.  BUT...ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING CROSS-COMPONENT
FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS MAY BOW...INCREASING THE RISK OF A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND PARTS
OF THE SERN STATES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.

..RACY.. 01/06/2007