[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040604
SWODY2
SPC AC 040603

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CST THU JAN 04 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL TO SRN NC...

...SERN U.S...

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING THE EJECTING
UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WITH TIME
THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS...ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

EARLIER CONCERNS OF LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF RAPIDLY
WEAKENING SFC FRONT HAVE SUBSIDED AS IT NOW APPEARS SFC DEW POINTS
OF AT LEAST LOW-MID 60S SHOULD SPREAD INLAND WELL AHEAD OF WIND
SHIFT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WITH HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR THE GULF
COAST.  LATEST THINKING IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRONGLY FORCED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER
AL/FL PANHANDLE.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NRN FL PENINSULA...AND SRN GA BY 00Z AS WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ENHANCES VERTICAL MOTION FIELD.  ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE SUBSTANTIALLY TO
DESTABILIZATION AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE
LINE.  IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT RECOVERY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AFTER 00Z.  SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER DOMINANT
STORM MODE MAY ACTUALLY BE LINEAR GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE.  IF SQUALL LINE IS THE DOMINANT
MODE...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 01/04/2007