[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 200608
SWODY2
SPC AC 200607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TN VALLEY/SC...
MODEL FORECASTS FINALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST
TO BE STEEPEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AROUND
MIDDAY IN AL...GA AND POSSIBLY SC. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

..BROYLES.. 02/20/2007