From swody2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 00:35:34 2007 From: swody2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2007 19:35:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] Notice/update regarding email weather bulletins Message-ID: <20070220003559.40E423A004E@mail.goshen.edu> As many of you have noticed there have not been a lot of weather bulletins coming to you by email in the last month or so. The cold weather has exposed the slow failure of the LNB (low-noise block down-converter) on my Ku-band EMWIN satellite downlink. When LNBs get old, their center-frequencies become very temperature dependent. In other words, the colder outside it gets, the futher off-frequency it drifts, until the signal drops to below the noise threshhold. At that point the ingest engines locks up and no more message get parsed. So as long as the temperature stays above the mid-twenties, the data will keep flowing. A new LNB has been ordered, and hopefully the four-foot snow drift around the dish will melt about the same time the new LNB shows up. That's the update...it appears to be running smoothly right now with the temperatures mild, so we'll see what happens in the next week. If you are on more that one list, you have received one message for each list that you are on. Apologies for any duplicates. ---------------------------------------------------------- Calvin F. Swartzendruber calvinfs at goshen.edu From swody2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 06:04:03 2007 From: swody2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2007 01:04:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: ACUS02 KWNS 200608 SWODY2 SPC AC 200607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TN VALLEY/SC... MODEL FORECASTS FINALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AROUND MIDDAY IN AL...GA AND POSSIBLY SC. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 02/20/2007  From swody2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 21 06:27:52 2007 From: swody2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2007 01:27:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: ACUS02 KWNS 210632 SWODY2 SPC AC 210630 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST WED FEB 21 2007 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THURSDAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN ORE SWD TO THE CNTRL CA COAST. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN WRN ORE AND WRN WA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM IN THIS REGION. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN AZ WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD AND BECOME SUPERIMPOSED IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO WSWLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WRN U.S...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS TX AND OK THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION OVER OK AND NRN TX. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL ATTM. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2007  From swody2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 00:35:34 2007 From: swody2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2007 19:35:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] Notice/update regarding email weather bulletins Message-ID: <20070220003559.40E423A004E@mail.goshen.edu> As many of you have noticed there have not been a lot of weather bulletins coming to you by email in the last month or so. The cold weather has exposed the slow failure of the LNB (low-noise block down-converter) on my Ku-band EMWIN satellite downlink. When LNBs get old, their center-frequencies become very temperature dependent. In other words, the colder outside it gets, the futher off-frequency it drifts, until the signal drops to below the noise threshhold. At that point the ingest engines locks up and no more message get parsed. So as long as the temperature stays above the mid-twenties, the data will keep flowing. A new LNB has been ordered, and hopefully the four-foot snow drift around the dish will melt about the same time the new LNB shows up. That's the update...it appears to be running smoothly right now with the temperatures mild, so we'll see what happens in the next week. If you are on more that one list, you have received one message for each list that you are on. Apologies for any duplicates. ---------------------------------------------------------- Calvin F. Swartzendruber calvinfs at goshen.edu From swody2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 06:04:03 2007 From: swody2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2007 01:04:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: ACUS02 KWNS 200608 SWODY2 SPC AC 200607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TN VALLEY/SC... MODEL FORECASTS FINALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AROUND MIDDAY IN AL...GA AND POSSIBLY SC. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 02/20/2007  From swody2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 21 06:27:52 2007 From: swody2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2007 01:27:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: ACUS02 KWNS 210632 SWODY2 SPC AC 210630 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST WED FEB 21 2007 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THURSDAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN ORE SWD TO THE CNTRL CA COAST. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN WRN ORE AND WRN WA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM IN THIS REGION. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN AZ WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD AND BECOME SUPERIMPOSED IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO WSWLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WRN U.S...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS TX AND OK THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION OVER OK AND NRN TX. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL ATTM. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2007