[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 271722
SWODY2
SPC AC 271721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EASTERN APPALACHIANS...

STRONG SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY EVENING WHERE 12HR HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF 120M.  IT APPEARS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
BE STRONGLY FORCED...AND CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE...AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.

A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE LATE DAY1
PERIOD FROM THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO WRN TN.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ADVANCE INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN PA...SWWD INTO NRN GA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTERNOON HEATING AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT SHOULD
ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY OVER AND TO THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR CERTAINLY WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LINEAR STORM MODE WITHIN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
FRONTAL ZONE.

..DARROW.. 09/27/2006