[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 270539
SWODY2
SPC AC 270538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT WED SEP 27 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...APPALACHIAN MTNS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL
DIG QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL WITH A BAND OF VERY
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST THURSDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT IN THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH DEVELOPING A LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
APPALACHIANS WITH THE LINE MOVING ESEWD INTO THE APPALACHIAN
FOOTHILLS ACROSS VA...NC AND SC THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRONG SHEAR
AND FAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER-SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAKING
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS.

..BROYLES.. 09/27/2006