[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 200545
SWODY2
SPC AC 200545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING
UPPER LOW OVER ORE...DIGGING SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO KS BY 12Z THURSDAY
MORNING WHERE SUBSEQUENT STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND EJECTING SPEED MAX
WILL ALLOW UPPER LOW TO LIFT NEWD INTO WRN IA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

DESPITE RELUCTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF CYCLONE...IT APPEARS STRONG ASCENT AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES NORTH OF JET AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO THE
INSTABILITY REQUIRED FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
BY 18Z.  EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE...DRIVEN IN LARGE PART DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH
COMPACT...AND NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED...LOW WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO
DESTABILIZE ALONG A NARROW AXIS...AND WITHIN A BRIEF TIME FRAME FOR
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN KS/SERN NEB.  STRONG
SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION.  AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE-TYPE SEVERE RISK CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

..DARROW.. 09/20/2006