[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051729
SWODY2
SPC AC 051728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD EJECT NEWD INTO THE NERN
STATES WEDNESDAY. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.
AS THIS LOW LIFTS NWD DURING THE DAY...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY. FARTHER WEST...A BROAD FETCH OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
IN THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.


...S CNTRL AND SERN CO THROUGH NERN NM...

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE SWD AND ENHANCE ASCENT....AND A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SSEWD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. LIGHT SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALONG WRN PERIPHERY
OF PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE BENEATH 20 TO 25 KT NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CAROLINA COASTS...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND PRESENCE OF
WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS...ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.

..DIAL.. 09/05/2006