[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040605
SWODY2
SPC AC 040604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT MON SEP 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE
ERN U.S. TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS/SOUTHEAST
STATES.  THE DIGGING TROUGH SHOULD DRIVE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS 
GA/THE CAROLINAS ALONG REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE.

...THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST AHEAD OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS
REGION...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION.  NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL UVV ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM GA NEWD INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  

THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...35 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS...AND THEREFORE WILL EXPAND THE
5% SEVERE PROBABILITY E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS
FORECAST.

...MIDDLE OH/TN VALLEYS...
MARGINAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH
VALLEY REGION AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPREADS SLOWLY
EWD.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH LIMITED DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT
MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.  A FEW STRONGER/WEAKLY-ORGANIZED
STORMS -- AIDED BY 35 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS -- MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KY/SRN INDIANA/SWRN OH...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT.  THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.

...NERN NM/SERN CO...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
ADJACENT NERN NM BENEATH 30 KT NLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT AS A FEW WEAKLY-ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 09/04/2006