[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 091720
SWODY2
SPC AC 091719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THE GFS
HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND IS FURTHER EWD WITH THE
SYSTEM THAN THE NAM. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS SINCE THE NAM HAS
BEEN SPEEDING UP THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM THE PAST FEW RUNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEAK SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...TO
BE LOCATED IN NWRN MO BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO NERN OK AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT AND ALSO ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AS WEAK HIGH LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

...WRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT FROM WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
SPREADS EWD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN KS AND CENTRAL
OK. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE LIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
IT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOWER TO
MID 60 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S SHOULD RESULT
IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
STRONG...THOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM SHOULD
SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGING FROM 25-35 KT. THE AMOUNT OF 
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
FROM WRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. RELATIVELY STEEP LASE
RATES IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM INDICATE THAT LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..IMY.. 09/09/2006