[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 301804
SWODY2
SPC AC 301803

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST MON OCT 30 2006

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW /ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER CNTRL
CANADA/ WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS. WITHIN THIS REGIME...SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH /NOW NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS REGION/ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM
THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER OH
VALLEY SWWD INTO WRN TX WILL PUSH SEWD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM WRN OR
MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...OZARK PLATEAU SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

AS MENTIONED IN CURRENT DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF SRN
STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF DAY EWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES AND STORMS SHIFT AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER LA WITHIN A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
RESULTANT MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE
OF FORCING AS: 1) IT APPEARS THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE E PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING/TIME OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...AND
2) APPARENT SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE.

SHOULD DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION INITIATE AND BECOME
SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED ATTM OWING TO UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

..MEAD.. 10/30/2006