[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 300631
SWODY2
SPC AC 300630

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CST MON OCT 30 2006

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
WESTERLIES AND WEAK BROAD TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE NOW
CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...MUCH AS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  AND...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS
THE NORTHERN IMPULSE PIVOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A BROAD CIRCULATION NOW FORMING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND
INCREASINGLY SHEARED SOUTHERN IMPULSE ACCELERATES ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND 
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU TUESDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...
COLD FRONT  ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL
PROBABLY SLOW OR STALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
SURGE EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST...TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF ASSOCIATED DEEP OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
OVER ONTARIO.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AS BULK OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTS WELL TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
OF REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS WELL...BUT COULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INTO THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING HOURS TUESDAY. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT DOES APPEAR LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH ADVECTION OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  AND...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONALLY AND
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL EVOLVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  THOUGH
STRENGTH OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS UNCERTAIN...MODELS INDICATE
WEAKENED INHIBITION ALONG A LINGERING MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...WHICH
MAY ALLOW THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  IF
THIS OCCURS...CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST.

..KERR.. 10/30/2006