[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 270545
SWODY2
SPC AC 270544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES APPEARS
UNDERWAY...MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER
JET STREAK NOSING AROUND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.  EXIT
REGION OF THIS JET STREAK...AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...ARE PROGGED INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z
SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND MERGING WITH A
SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY.  CONSOLIDATING IMPULSES WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A
DEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
STATES EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THOUGH...STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST IN
A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 12Z SATURDAY. 
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN
THIS REGIME WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED...WITH LAPSE RATES TRENDING
TOWARD MOIST ADIABATIC AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY VERY WEAK CAPE. 
THUS...ALTHOUGH A BROKEN SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF SURFACE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIMITED
BEFORE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES OFFSHORE.  THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY
BE SMALL AS WELL...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE PROGGED TO VEER TO WESTERLY BY MID
DAY SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS.  ASSOCIATED COOLING AND DRYING OF LOWER LEVELS WILL END
CONVECTIVE THREAT.

..KERR.. 10/27/2006