[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 260539
SWODY2
SPC AC 260538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
REGION...

STRONG DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS OK/TX DURING THE DAY1
PERIOD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 27/12Z...WITH A SHARP FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING SWD FROM A SFC LOW OVER AR INTO LA.  THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE
DAY1 PERIOD INTO DAY2 WITH A WELL FORCED SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

SFC RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST WILL INITIALLY PROVE QUITE
HOSTILE IN BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. 
ADDITIONALLY...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL SLOW RECOVERY
PROCESS INLAND FROM CNTRL MS INTO CNTRL GA.  INITIALLY IT APPEARS
GREATEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER TX
COAST/SWRN LA WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE RISING THROUGH THE 60S TO
NEAR 70F.  MUCH OF SRN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD EASILY
DESTABILIZE AS LLJ VEERS AND SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AL/WCNTRL GA BY 18Z.  AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE SUPERCELLS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE SRN GULF STATES.  NAM IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY THAN THE GFS WHICH AT
TIMES IS SLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INLAND.  EVEN SO...STRENGTH OF UPPER
SYSTEM SUGGESTS AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
THE GULF STATES...WHILE THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AHEAD OF MAIN LINE
WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

...CAROLINAS...

LATER IN THE PERIOD...WELL DOWNSTREAM...NAM AGGRESSIVELY FORCES
HIGHER MOISTURE JUST INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LLJ AFTER 00Z ACROSS
THIS REGION.  IF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS DOES INDEED SPREAD INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CERTAINLY
INCREASE.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOUNDARY
LAYER RECOVERY INLAND TO MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE AT
THIS TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 10/26/2006