[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 151725
SWODY2
SPC AC 151724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TX...LA..MS AND SRN AR...

...EAST TX/LA/MS AND SRN AR...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND
ADVANCE EWD INTO WEST TX MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...A VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EAST TX...WRN LA
AND WRN AR WITH THE JET LIKELY REACHING 80 KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LARGE TROPICAL-LIKE MCS WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS EAST TX...WRN LA...SRN AR AND
INTO WRN MS DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID AT 12Z MONDAY IN THE
HOUSTON...BEAUMONT...LUFKIN AND LAKE CHARLES AREAS SHOW 55 TO 65 KT
OF SLY FLOW AT 850 MB AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTING A
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS EAST TX AND SWRN LA MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND THE LARGE MCS DRIFTS
NNEWD...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXPAND INTO NRN LA...SRN AR AND
WRN MS BY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS A MID-LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING JET...0-6 KM SHEAR WILL 
STEADILY INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 TO 45 KT IN EAST TX AND WRN LA BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP ROTATING STORMS TO PERSIST LONGER
AND A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO
THREAT.

...WCNTRL TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...FRONTOGENESIS MAY TAKE PLACE ACROSS WCNTRL TX
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 10/15/2006