[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 081715
SWODY2
SPC AC 081714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND FAR
W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW LOCATED OVER SRN CA COAST PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO EJECT EWD ACROSS NRN SONORA/AZ INTO NM
DURING DAY 2 AS UPSTREAM SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA IMPULSE DIGS SWWD FROM
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...REACHING NRN CA/WRN NV BY 12Z TUESDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
E ACROSS ERN CANADA MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD INTO OH VALLEY...
THE OZARKS REGION...AND SRN PLAINS.  WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS W TX/SRN NM...ESPECIALLY BY END
OF PERIOD...GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING CA SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

...SWRN CONUS...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S LOCATED S OF THE FRONT IN NM COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. 
SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME ACROSS SRN/ERN AZ...AS CA
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFT/GREATEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO SWRN NM AND FAR W TX BY PEAK HEATING. 
INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF CA IMPULSE AND IN EXIT REGION OF
ACCOMPANYING 60-65 SWLY MID LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN NM/FAR W TX AND
POTENTIALLY AS FAR W AS SERN AZ BENEATH COLDER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG UPPER FORCING
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS W TX IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT...
AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EWD INTO SERN NM AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF W TX ATOP STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT.

..PETERS.. 10/08/2006