[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 080527
SWODY2
SPC AC 080526

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN NM AND FAR W
TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITION FCST BY END OF PERIOD...AS HEIGHTS RISE
ACROSS SERN CONUS AND FALL FROM 4-CORNERS REGION TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES. PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT -- NOW LOCATED FROM ARKLATEX REGION
TO SRN ONT -- WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SEWD...AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN
CA EVOLVES TO STRONG OPEN-WAVE PERTURBATION AND EJECTS EWD ACROSS
AZ...SONORA AND NM.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO SWD MOVEMENT AND
AMPLIFICATION OF SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN BC.  OPERATIONAL
SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES AT MESO-ALPHA SCALE...BUT GENERAL PATTERN BY END OF
PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP/CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CA OR
NV...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NM...AND POSITIVELY
TILTED NRN-STREAM TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS LS AND NRN ONT.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN MEX S ELP -- IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NEWD FROM NM ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-1 THEN WEAKEN OVER UPPER
MS VALLEY DAY-2.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ASSOCIATED WITH SERN CONUS LOW WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE OVER CENTRAL/WRN GULF COAST REGION...AMIDST SFC RIDGING THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD ACROSS SE TX.  STRONG
COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS SERN
SD...CENTRAL NEB...NERN CO -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH GREAT
LAKES AND INTO OH VALLEY...OZARKS...WRN OK AND PORTIONS W TX/SERN NM
BY 10/00Z.  TX-NM FRONTAL SEGMENT MAY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY BY END
OF PERIOD...BENEATH STRONG/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED
WITH EJECTING CA PERTURBATION.

...SWRN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS --
PERHAPS INTO SWRN KS -- EARLY IN PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE...WRN/NWRN OK AND SWRN KS BEFORE
DISSIPATING DURING MID-LATE MORNING HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF JUXTAPOSED MIDLEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION....AHEAD OF EJECTING MEXICAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
BY START OF PERIOD...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY N OF SFC COLD
FRONT...SVR POTENTIAL HAVING ENDED DURING PREVIOUS NIGHT.  REF SPC
DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THAT REGIME.

BY AFTERNOON...PRIND CLOUD BREAKS AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL HEATING
WILL PERMIT BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY SW OF SFC COLD
FRONT...ACROSS PORTIONS SERN AZ...SRN NM AND FAR W TX. SFC TEMPS
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F AND DEW POINTS LOCALLY 50-55 DEG F ARE
EXPECTED...YIELDING MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG IN MODIFIED WRF SOUNDINGS.
 EXPECT SFC FLOW TO VEER FROM W-E WITH TIME ACROSS ERN AND ERN AZ
JUST AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL WAVE...DIMINISHING VERTICAL SHEAR AND SFC
FORCING.  ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE LINE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
SRN NM/FAR W TX BORDERLAND REGION...COINCIDENT WITH PEAK SFC WARMING
AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT E OF LINE WHERE FLOW COMPONENT IS
UPSLOPE...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT BENEATH 45-55 KT 500 MB JET. 
FCST KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST UP TO 70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND -- FOR
RIGHT-MOVING STORMS -- 100-150 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH POSSIBLE.  THIS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS TO DEVELOP.

AFTER DARK...BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OVER SFC AIR MASS THAT
WILL BE STABILIZED BY DIABATIC COOLING AND/OR POSTFRONTAL CAA. 
HOWEVER...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE
STABLE SFC LAYER MAY SUPPORT MRGL SVR POTENTIAL EWD/NEWD TOWARD
PORTIONS SERN NM AND PERMIAN BASIN REGION OF W TX.

..EDWARDS.. 10/08/2006