[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 071650
SWODY2
SPC AC 071649

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE
SRN CA COAST BY END OF DAY 1...AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SRN
CA ON DAY 2.

MEANWHILE...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN/NRN ONTARIO TOWARD NRN QUEBEC ON
SUNDAY.  DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW CAROLINAS CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SEWD OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST.  STRONGEST ASCENT SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH
THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING DAY 2 PERIOD...THOUGH
WARM CONVEYOR ABOVE SURFACE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
COASTAL CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WATERS IN VICINITY OF COASTAL FRONT. 

...SWRN CONUS...
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG SERN/ERN PERIPHERY OF SRN CA CLOSED
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AZ BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN SPREAD
INTO NM BY SUNDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP PERSISTENT TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO
THE SWRN STATES FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE ERN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ/NM INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL TEND
TO BE MARGINAL...THOUGH POCKETS OF MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG MAY
DEVELOP WHERE CLOUD BREAKS RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING. 
UNCERTAINTIES IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT
PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
FOR WELL-MIXED/INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 10/07/2006