[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051722
SWODY2
SPC AC 051721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLATEAU AND GREAT BASIN....

THE STRONGER BRANCH OF UPPER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ZONAL AT HIGHER
LATITUDES...NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS AMPLIFIED
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS A
VIGOROUS EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TO THE LEE
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH...NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY SATURDAY.  MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG CENTRAL STATES RIDGE...A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MOISTENING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT BASIN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP
LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH.  THIS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OUT OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  ALTHOUGH CONCERNS EXIST ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SEEM LIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  EVEN WEAK CAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND/HAIL
POTENTIAL.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SEVERE
THREATS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH...BEFORE STRONGER UPPER FORCING
SPREADS NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY EVENING.

...MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH A MOIST AIR MASS
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE EXIT REGION
OF A STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RISK OF AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO APPROACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 10/05/2006