[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 050546
SWODY2
SPC AC 050545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT THU OCT 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN
DESERTS AND GRT BASIN...

...SWRN DESERTS NWD INTO THE GRT BASIN...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DURING PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN EJECTING THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE INTO THE GRT BASIN
REGION FRI AFTN/EVE.  AN EXTENSIVE WARM CONVEYOR WITH A SUB-TROPICAL
TAP WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS AZ INTO UT THU AND FRI. SPEED MAXIMA
WITHIN THIS BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION OVER A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA FROM
THE SWRN DESERTS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. 

AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT...A 70+ KT SWLY JET STREAK IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM SRN CA INTO SRN UT BY FRI AFTN.  STRONG
MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR FORCING ASSOC WITH THE JETLET WILL INDUCE A SFC
LOW THAT WILL TRACK NWD THROUGH ERN NV.  TO THE S OF THE LOW...A
FRONT WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO SWRN UT/WRN AZ EARLY FRI AFTN.  

SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WARM CONVEYOR INDUCED CLOUDS FOR SCT TSTM
INITIATION.  VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 50 KTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.  ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL ATTM APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CNTRL-NRN AZ NWD INTO WRN/CNTRL
UT WHERE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OCCUR.

THOUGH THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE...MAIN
STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/SQUALL-LINE BEFORE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT ACROSS SERN ID...ERN UT AND WRN CO. 

...SERN STATES...
DIGGING UPPER LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL INDUCE A LOW JUST
OFF THE VA/NC CAPES LATE THU INTO FRI. INCREASING NLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL FORCE A FRONT SWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES
AND INTO NRN FL FRI NIGHT.  A FEW TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
MAY INHIBIT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK...WITH MULTICELL STORMS LIKELY FAVORED OVER ORGANIZED SVR
STORMS.  

OTHERWISE...DEFORMATION TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN VA/ERN NC
FRI NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES.  IF THE SFC LOW
DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THREAT FOR SFC-BASED STORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NC CAPES.  BUT...MODELS SO FAR KEEP DEVELOPMENT
OFF THE COAST.

..RACY.. 10/05/2006