[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 250521
SWODY2
SPC AC 250520

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS/EAST TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

LATEST NAM/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER IN EJECTING UPPER
LOW EWD ACROSS OK DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS SLOWER EVOLUTION
WILL SIMPLY ALLOW NARROW MOIST AXIS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF A BIT
FARTHER WEST ACROSS ERN OK INTO NERN TX PRIOR TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  LATEST THINKING IS STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM
WILL FORCE LEE CYCLONE SEWD INTO NCNTRL OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION DRIVES SFC LOW EWD TOWARD THE BOOT
HEEL OF MO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FOCUS MAINLY
ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR WHERE GREATEST FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME THAT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ENHANCING SBCAPE TO VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. 
STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT BY 21Z ACROSS ERN OK INTO NERN TX.  SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS. 
HOWEVER...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. 
IF BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS CAN INDEED RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AS
SUGGESTED BY LATEST GUIDANCE...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.  OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED PLUME OF WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRETCH SW-NE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX
INTO LA...MAINTAINING A WEAK-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATE PROFILE AND
SUPPRESSING DIABATIC HEATING.  EVEN SO...STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SURGES EWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS SQUALL LINE MATURES AND
RACES EWD...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER.

..DARROW.. 10/25/2006