[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 201725
SWODY2
SPC AC 201724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COASTAL REGION...
POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO.  ASOCD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD AND
REACH THE MIDWEST...THE DEEP S AND SRN TX BY 12Z SUNDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...RESIDUAL FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RETURN NWD INTO
NRN AL AND GA WHILE THE MARINE FRONT REDEVELOPS TO ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS SEWD...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM S TX
INTO THE SRN STATES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUT...LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL REMAIN WSWLY AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MARITIME
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD.  RATHER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST INVOF THE MARINE FRONT.  WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF CONVECTION/TSTMS OVER THE WRN GULF
BASIN/COASTAL TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DEVELOP ENEWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING SATURDAY
AFTN.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS SERN/S TX SATURDAY EVE/OVERNIGHT.  

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE GULF COAST SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 
WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS MOST TSTMS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...THOUGH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE GULF COAST. DEEPENING WLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO THE SERN STATES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

..RACY.. 10/20/2006