[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 141722
SWODY2
SPC AC 141721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE TX AND LA GULF
COASTAL AREAS...

...TX/LA GULF COAST...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
WRN GULF COAST STATES AS AN UPPER-LOW MOVES SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS AZ
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX
WILL LIFT NWD ALONG THE TX COAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN QUICKLY NWD AS A 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS EAST
AND NORTH TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MCS ACROSS SOUTH TX SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
MCS EXPANDING NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTHEAST TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALONG THE TX GULF COAST SHOW VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30
KT RANGE. THIS STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EWD DURING THE DAY AFFECTING SRN LA BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH LESS OF A THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
ENHANCED INSTABILITY.  

...ERN NM/WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CA TONIGHT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS AZ SUNDAY AS A
STRONG 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND WEST TX SUNDAY WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 60S F AS FAR NWWD AS THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS
ACROSS WEST TX AND PARTS OF ERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
KEEPING THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF STORM
COVERAGE REMAINS LESS AND MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFS...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 10/14/2006