[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010546
SWODY2
SPC AC 010545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN OCT 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VLY INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS...

...UPR MS VLY TO CNTRL GRTLKS...
MAIN BELT OF WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO SRN CANADA WHERE A MID-LEVEL
WAVE WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  TO THE S...A
SUB-TROPICAL JET AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL EXIST FROM SRN CA
NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.  MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THESE
SUB-TROPICAL WAVES.  AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS
SD ALONG A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.  TO THE S...A LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EWD INTO NEB AND WRN KS.

A MODEST SWLY LLJ WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AIMED FROM THE ERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY.  THIS WILL
TRANSPORT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID-
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES /EML/.  THE STRENGTH OF THE EML WILL MOST
LIKELY PRECLUDE SFC-BASED TSTMS ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS.

PARCELS WILL LIKELY CONVECT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONGER CAP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATE ESEWD DURING MONDAY
AFTN.  STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CORN
BELT/ERN PLAINS MON AFTN.  THERMAL RIDGE/CAP MAY DEVELOP NEWD AS FAR
AS THE UPPER MS VLY COINCIDENT WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR. IF
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...TIED TO THE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSES...IS AS
STRONG AS THE NAM...SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE THERMAL RIDGE.  OTHERWISE...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY WAIT
UNTIL AFTER DARK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LLJ. IF SFC BASED
TSTMS CAN MANAGE TO FORM...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIT. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...FRONTAL
PLACEMENTS...MAGNITUDE OF THERMODYNAMICS AND WHETHER UPPER SUPPORT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT...HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW-END SLGT CATEGORICAL
RISK.

..RACY.. 10/01/2006