[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 271714
SWODY2
SPC AC 271713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST MON NOV 27 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH LARGE SCALE WRN NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MODEST TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO TRANSLATE EWD FROM
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TO THE NRN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. AN EXTENSIVE BELT OF STRONG SWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN THE WRN TROUGH AND SERN RIDGE. LIFT AND MOISTURE
FLUX WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT TO THE EAST OF SW/NE ORIENTED
DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TSTMS THIS PERIOD.


...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY...
TSTMS...PRIMARILY ROOTED ABOVE A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NERN TX/SERN
OK...NNEWD ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS REGIONS AND A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORM UPDRAFTS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA AND
NRN MO...INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL
CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN TIME/SPACE TO JUSTIFY A PROBABILITY
FORECAST. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS GENERALLY WEAKENING
WITH TIME.

A REPRIEVE FROM DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME TUESDAY EVENING
BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING THE PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULT IN POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FROM NRN IA ACROSS MN/WI.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD WITHIN
PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FROM CNTRL OK ACROSS THE OZARKS. WHILE ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

..CARBIN.. 11/27/2006