[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 221653
SWODY2
SPC AC 221652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST WED NOV 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY DURING THIS PERIOD
AS MEAN ERN TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD CYCLONIC VORTEX NOW
OFFSHORE SC/GA IS FCST TO CONTINUE FILLING AND TO EJECT NEWD OVER
GULF STREAM.  ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM OVER NC OUTER
BANKS -- SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE NERN NC AROUND 23/12Z...LIKEWISE
LIFTING NEWD OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE ORE/NRN CA -- WILL
MOVE EWD QUICKLY FROM INTERIOR PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS DAY-2. THIS
WILL ENGENDER STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS...IN
LEE OF ROCKIES.  RESULTANT SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT NEWD OVER PORTIONS
SRN SASK/MB BY 24/12Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TOO SCANT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  FARTHER
NW...MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW DIGGING SWD FROM SRN GULF OF AK
SHOULD PIVOT EWD...WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING ASHORE WA/ORE
BETWEEN 24/00-24/06Z.

...PACIFIC NW...
DEEP-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE IN WAKE OF STRONG
TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE CA/ORE.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM PERTURBATION SHOULD STEEPEN LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK CINH AND MARINE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/EPISODIC THUNDER RISK FOR PORTIONS WRN WA/ORE.


...ERN NC...
TSTM OUTLOOK IS MRGL AND VALID FOR FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD.  GEN
TSTM REGIME ALREADY DESCRIBED IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK MAY LINGER PAST
23/12Z BEFORE DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR
EXIT AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 11/22/2006