[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 201644
SWODY2
SPC AC 201643

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST MON NOV 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SRN STREAM SYNOPTIC PATTERN FCST TO REMAIN
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING DEEP ERN MEAN
TROUGH...AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM NRN MEX ACROSS UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN MS AND SERN LA -- IS
FCST TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH NOW OVER ERN KY AND DIG ESEWD. 
RESULTANT CLOSED CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN GA AND FL
PENINSULA...AND WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE FOR THIS REGION.  NRN
STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY OVER CONUS.  BROAD BELT OF WSWLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM PACIFIC NW TO ONTARIO...DOWNSTREAM FROM
SEWD-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER GULF OF AK.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST JUST OFFSHORE NRN FL/SERN GA...IN RESPONSE
TO APCHG/DEEPENING LOW ALOFT.  SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE...AS UPPER VORTEX APCHS AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY CONTINUOUS
WITH SFC CYCLONE.  THIS WILL REINFORCE POST COLD FRONTAL BAROCLINIC
GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FL...BUT ALSO WILL STIMULATE LOW
LEVEL WARM-FRONTOGENESIS OVER ATLANTIC WATERS OFFSHORE GA AND
CAROLINAS.

...SRN ATLANTIC COAST...
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED BUOYANCY AND BULK OF TSTMS EACH SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE...STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS FROM COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS EWD.  ALTHOUGH
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT
200 J/KG MAY REACH INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LIGHTNING.

...WRN PACIFIC NW...
APCHG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME...AS WELL AS FRONTOGENESIS...AS NOTED IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK. 
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DAY-2 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY
BUT ALSO MINIMAL CINH OVER COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS OF
PACIFIC...WHERE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE GREATEST...SUPPORTING
OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING.

..EDWARDS.. 11/20/2006