[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 090609
SWODY2
SPC AC 090607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST THU NOV 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W COAST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.
INCREASING WLY UPPER FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...THE LOW WILL
SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REACHING THE OH
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH
VALLEY SWWD THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
LOW IN OK SWD THROUGH CNTRL TX. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE DURING THE
DAY...THE FRONT WILL SURGE SE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND MID TO
LOWER MS VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT.

...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY REGION...

SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS E OF SURFACE LOW
AND ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE INTO SRN MO. THE MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS DURING THE DAY. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOW AN EML HAS ADVECTED INTO W TX. THIS WARM LAYER WILL
SPREAD EAST ABOVE MOIST AXIS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE THIS WILL
SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO
SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCAPE WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY TO
BELOW 800 J/KG FARTHER NE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF NERN KS INTO
NRN MO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG NERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP AND WITHIN
ZONE OF ASCENT N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FARTHER S OVER ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXPECT
INITIATION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SEWD MOVING FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITHIN MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
GIVEN EXPECTED CAP...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO FRONTAL
ZONE IN THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF AR WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER N FROM SRN MO THROUGH WRN KY...INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BUT VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE
STRONGER. PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS PORTION
OF THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT IN THIS
REGION.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2006