[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 060603
SWODY2
SPC AC 060602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST MON NOV 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE AND CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY. ATTENDANT CYCLOGENESIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. BY EARLY TUESDAY AN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO
THE NWRN GULF. A WARM FRONT SHOULD EXIST JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE NERN
GULF INTO NRN FL AND MAY LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.

...CNTRL AND SRN AL...SRN GA THROUGH FL...

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF COASTAL
AREA WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE EARLY TUESDAY. ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD N OF WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN
AL AND SRN GA. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SHOULD RESIDE S OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY
OF AND JUST N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SOME
CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR S OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NERN GULF AND SPREAD EWD
INTO FL BY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WITH SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE.

FARTHER W NEAR OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF AL...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST AS UPPER DRY SLOT ADVANCES EWD.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE SLOW TO MIX OUT AND LIMIT INSTABILITY
IN THIS REGION AS WELL WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG EXPECTED.
STILL PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER LOW SUGGEST STORMS COULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT AND BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK AT THIS TIME DUE PRIMARILY TO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS UPON
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...MS...

COLD CORE UPPER LOW WITH -18C AT 500 MB IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT MAX.
ISOLATED SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IF LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING TO OCCUR.

..DIAL.. 11/06/2006