[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051628
SWODY2
SPC AC 051627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES....LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SRN
STREAM BRANCH OF FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
TRANSLATES FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE TX HILL
COUNTY INTO CNTRL MS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING SEWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.  MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THIS MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WILL RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL GULF COAST. 

...TX COAST EWD ACROSS SRN LA/MS...

A FAIRLY LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE OVER SRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF TX INTO WRN LA WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.  WEAK LAPSE RATES
RESULTING FROM THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES AOB 500-800 J/KG. 
ADDITIONALLY...WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH GENERALLY 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SYSTEM WARM
SECTOR.  HOWEVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO.

THIS MARGINAL SEVERE STORM THREAT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE TX
COAST/SWRN LA MONDAY INTO SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS MONDAY NIGHT.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2006