[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 050517
SWODY2
SPC AC 050515

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST SAT NOV 04 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING
SRN BRANCH OF FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY. THE GFS HAS BACKED AWAY
FROM CLOSING THE SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF OVER THE WRN GULF.
ALL MODELS NOW MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE OPEN TROUGH.

...SRN AND SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST AS THE POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY. RESULTING MODEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LIMIT NWD EXTENT
AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVECTED INTO SRN AND SERN TX BY EARLY
MONDAY. RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO SRN LA AS A
COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY
MONDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN TX NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EARLY ONSET
OF CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF S TX WHERE MORE SURFACE HEATING MAY OCCUR.
MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND LACK OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION MAY EXIST AS STORMS DEVELOP SEWD
DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF S TX WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MULTICELL IN CHARACTER WITH
A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

..DIAL.. 11/05/2006