[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 041633
SWODY2
SPC AC 041632

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST SAT NOV 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD AS FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS.  WITHIN
THIS LARGER-SCALE PATTERN...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF MODEST /40-45 KTS AT 500 MB/
SPREADING ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...INVERTED TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...TX...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING
FROM PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL EWD THROUGH OK/RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE WRN OZARK PLATEAU WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM TROUGH.  TO THE S OF THIS AREA...INCREASING
SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWD/NWWD ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED CP AIR MASS BENEATH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7 C PER
KM/ CONTRIBUTING POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY E OF INVERTED
TROUGH WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  WHILE SOME
THREAT OF DIURNAL STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM N TX
INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/CONCHO VALLEY...IT APPEARS THE BETTER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LLJ RE-INTENSIFIES OVER THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EFFECTIVELY ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.

30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE MODEST INSTABILITY
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MEAD.. 11/04/2006