[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040558
SWODY2
SPC AC 040557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI NOV 03 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

...SWRN THROUGH W CNTRL TX...

MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING NWWD THROUGH TX SUNDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE WRN
GULF BECOMES SELY IN WAKE OF RETREATING SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT FAR ENOUGH WWD BENEATH
6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED ACROSS W TX TO RESULT IN
MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE IN PROGRESS EARLY SUNDAY FARTHER N FROM NRN TX INTO OK WITHIN THE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND
SWRN TX...SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SWRN TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING SEWD ADVANCING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR OTHER STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER W THROUGH W
CNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AS
THEY CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 11/04/2006