[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 270550
SWODY2
SPC AC 270548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST SUN NOV 26 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP TROUGH SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
W INTO THE PLAINS AND PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SERN STATES. 
WITHIN THIS BROADER PATTERN...SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL LIFT NNEWD INTO MANITOBA AND WRN
ONTARIO...POTENTIALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THIS REGION. 
MEANWHILE...STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE PACIFIC
NW COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL DIG SEWD WITH HEIGHT FALLS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM NRN NEB OR SRN SD INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SURGING
SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL LOW PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY
MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST SWD INTO THE
ERN KS AND WRN/NRN MO. DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COUPLED WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
MECHANISMS FOCUSING THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES
OF 500-700 J/KG.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SMALL TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION OF
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

THESE STORMS SHOULD TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THEY
BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  

ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IA SWWD INTO ERN KS/MO AS BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.  SOME THREAT OF
ISOLATED...SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST WITH THIS NOCTURNAL
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN KS GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES FORECAST.  NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED
AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL LIMITING EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED
WEAK INSTABILITY.

..MEAD.. 11/27/2006