[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 081721
SWODY2
SPC AC 081719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST WED NOV 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN SPLIT
BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS CANADA
AND THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLOSED LOW...PROGGED TO BE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL STREAMS WILL BE
OUT OF PHASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD ...WITH
THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL STREAM GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
STREAM IS ALREADY ADVANCING INTO NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL
AREAS...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR/SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY.

...GREAT BASIN THRU THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM
THE PACIFIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
 THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A THUNDERSTORM.  HOWEVER...AREAL
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE APPEARS LOW.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES... DESPITE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN GULF COASTAL
AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY ADVECT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...THIS
WILL OCCUR BENEATH A RATHER WARM AND DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WILL SUPPRESS
DEEP CONVECTION.  AN EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRENGTHENING
LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA...TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.

..KERR.. 11/08/2006