[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 080541
SWODY2
SPC AC 080539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST TUE NOV 07 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY
LATE THURSDAY. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THEN SHIFT NEWD THROUGH OK/KS AND INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THE DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN ACROSS TX AND OK. COLD FRONT MARKING LEADING EDGE OF CP AIR
WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY...THEN ACCELERATE
INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. 

...N CNTRL/NERN OK...ERN KS THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL MO...

MODIFIED CP AIR WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY AS SSWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM
FROM DEVELOPING CYCLONE. HOWEVER SWLY FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
WILL LIKELY ADVECT AN EML PLUME THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE PROCESSES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE EML
WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT FROM PARTS OF NERN OK...ERN KS THROUGH MO WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWD ADVANCING FRONT AND SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE ELEVATED ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED AMOUNT OF LIFT NEEDED TO OVERCOME CAP. LAPSE RATES OF
7-7.5 C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BUT INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR A MORE ROBUST THREAT.

..DIAL.. 11/08/2006