[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 301732
SWODY2
SPC AC 301731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN U.S. RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS PERIOD...AS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS SHIFTS
SLOWLY EWD.

MEANWHILE...FLOW ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY WITH
TIME...AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
APPROACHING THE W COAST FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION.  MEANWHILE...WEAKER/MORE SUBTLE AXIS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
MN/SD/IA/NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF CO/NM COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE/ WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE. WITH 20 TO 25 KT WLYS AT MID-LEVELS...DEGREE OF
VEERING/SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
 STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TIME...AND
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...A
LOW-END THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NM AND INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF TX AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS THIS
AREA.

...WRN NEW ENGLAND/THE GREAT LAKES WSWWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...
WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGION. DESPITE THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NEAR AND AHEAD OF
FRONT. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY PULSE IN NATURE...A
FEW STRONGER/BRIEFLY INTENSE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAK /GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...BAND OF
ENHANCED /20 TO 30 KT/ FLOW AT MID-LEVELS AHEAD OF THE UPPER FEATURE
MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINAL HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  ANY SEVERE THREAT LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AS AIRMASS STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 05/30/2006