[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 261730
SWODY2
SPC AC 261729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITH A PROMINENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST BY SAT.  MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE TROUGH AND INTO THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS STATES.

AT THE SFC...LEE LOW OVER WY WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NEWD INTO CNTRL
ND BY SAT NIGHT AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  TO THE S OF THE LOW...A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WHILE A WARM FRONT
REDEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...AN OLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE SERN STATES.


...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO NRN MN...
A COUPLE OF MCS/S WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-MO VLY AND
OVER THE RED RVR VLY OF ERN ND/NWRN MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 
STRONGEST LLJ AXIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STORMS ALONG EDGE OF STRONG
CAP OVER SRN MANITOBA AND NRN MN INTO SAT AFTN/EVE WITH RISKS FOR
LARGE HAIL WHILE THE SRN MCS WEAKENS.

UPSTREAM...A SURGE OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CREATE A CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SAT EVE.  SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY
INITIATE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN ND VCNTY SFC LOW TRACK AND COLD FRONT LATE
SAT AFTN...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN CANADA. 
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG/N
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
EWD. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  IF DAYTIME STORMS CAN MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  BUT...IF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS DELAYED UNTIL OVERNIGHT N OF THE
FRONT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THOUGH MUCH OF THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED THROUGH
SAT AFTN...STRONG SFC HEATING MAY ALLOW THE CAP TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR
SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC AFTN 22Z SAT.  WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
STORMS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FAVORING BRIEF STORM
ORGANIZATION.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES ARE JUSTIFIED ATTM.

...MID-SOUTH AND THE SERN STATES...
SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH INTO THE SERN STATES SAT AFTN.  WEAK SHEAR WILL FAVOR
MULTI-CELL PULSE STORMS WITH PERHAPS ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/26/2006