[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 260610
SWODY2
SPC AC 260609

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS EWD ACROSS ND INTO NRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVING INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST.  MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WILL
MOVE EWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. A FEW MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING
FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD WITHIN
BAND OF STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO NRN
PLAINS AND INTO SRN CANADA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WY AT 12Z SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS ND SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EXTEND NEWD FROM THE WY LOW ACROSS ND INTO SRN MANITOBA WITH THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH DAY 2...AS A COLD FRONT
SPREADS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO ND/SD/NEB.  A LEE TROUGH/
DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. 
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE SE
STATES NWWD ACROSS THE TN/MID MS VALLEY INTO IA...AND SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

...PARTS OF NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO NRN MN...
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FROM DAY 1 INTO
DAY 2 WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
STATES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS MUCH OF ND/MN INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SRN CANADA.  ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS ATOP THE
MOISTURE RETURN...AND EFFECTIVELY CAP MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES...LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE. 
HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING FROM TX NWD TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN MN
WWD TO ERN MT/WY.

A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MN... REACHING
WRN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY EVENING.  A MODERATE-STRONG SSWLY LLJ
EXTENDING INTO ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AT START OF PERIOD SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITS STRENGTH AND TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS MN INTO ONTARIO.  A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD BE
ONGOING LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN
SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.  INCREASING INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THAT
CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED.  

ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ND ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR AFTERNOON STORMS FARTHER W
ACROSS ERN MT INTO WY AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH A SLY LLJ RE-INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS ACROSS ERN MT INTO ND.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SRN CANADA TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY.

...PARTS OF W TX NWD TO WRN KS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW THE CAP TO
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR SURFACE PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC AT OR AFTER
PEAK HEATING.  WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING NEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30 KTS FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  GIVEN ISOLATED
COVERAGE...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 05/26/2006