[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 241730
SWODY2
SPC AC 241729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID MS
VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE CONUS...WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER UPPER FLOW.  UPPER
LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN
VALLEYS WITH TIME...ACCOMPANIED BY A CYCLONIC ARC OF
MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST --
WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE
PAC NW COAST WITH TIME...WHILE ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET SPREADS ACROSS
THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...OH/TN/MID MS VALLEY REGION...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS SEWD
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO
DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTION.

AS UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS SEWD ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT NEW STORMS TO INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON -- LIKELY
ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY REGION INITIALLY.

WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED...EXPECT VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO AN ORGANIZED/LINEAR MCS WITH TIME. 
GIVEN MODERATELY-STRONG/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND
EVENT APPEARS TO EXIST.  WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SLIGHT RISK THIS
FORECAST AS SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING DEGREE OF AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTION OVER THE THREAT
AREA.  AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IN LATER FORECASTS.

...MT/NWRN WY/SERN ID...
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN TIGHT
UPPER HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES
AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE MARGINAL/HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT LYING ACROSS THE AREA
COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH LIKELY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.

DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...COMBINATION OF DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.  THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION.

..GOSS.. 05/24/2006