[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 211720
SWODY2
SPC AC 211718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
SWRN U.S. MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO CO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THE STRONG LIFT...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR AREAS WITH ENHANCED
INSTABILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING.

FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS CO AND THE HIGH PLAINS...A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS STORMS MOVE
EWD INTO THE GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.

...SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM NRN AL EXTENDING ESEWD
ACROSS NRN GA INTO SC. THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE
DAY...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD ACROSS SC IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/21/2006